Publications

2020

• Buwen Dong, Rowan T. Sutton, Len Shaffrey & Laura J. Wilcox. Attribution of 2012 extreme climate events: does air-sea interaction matter? Climate Dynamics 55, pages1225–1245(2020).
• Christidis, N., McCarthy, M. & Stott, P.A. The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 °C in the United Kingdom. Nat Commun 11, 3093 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16834-0
• Christidis, N., and P. A. Stott, The extremely cold start of the spring of 2018 in the United Kingdom. In “Explaining Extremes of 2018 from a Climate Perspective”. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2020) 101 (1): S23–S28.
• Dong, B., Sutton, R.T., Shaffrey, L. et al. Attribution of 2012 extreme climate events: does air-sea interaction matter?. Clim Dyn 55, 1225–1245 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05321-3
• Faranda, D., Vrac, M., Yiou, P., Jézéquel, A., & Thao, S.. (2020). Changes in future synoptic circulation patterns: consequences for extreme event attribution. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL088002. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088002
• Anna Kiriliouk and Philippe Naveau. Climate extreme event attribution using multivariate peaks-over-thresholds modeling and counterfactual theory. Annals of Applied Statistics, page In press, 2020. https://www.epublications.org/ims/submission/AOAS/user/submissionFile/42365?confirm=22179715
• Lott FC, Christidis N, Ciavarella A, Stott PA. The effect of human land use change in the Hadley Centre attribution system. Atmos Sci Lett. 2020;1–8. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.972
• Philippe Naveau, Alexis Hannart, and Aurélien Ribes. Statistical methods for extreme event attribution in climate science. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 7(1) :89–110, 2020. https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-statistics-031219-041314
• Robin, Y., A. Ribes (2020) Non-stationary GEV analysis for event attribution combining climate models and observations, submitted to ASCMO.
• Jérémy Rohmer, Jessie Louisor, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Philippe Naveau, Soulivanh Thao, et al.. Attribution of Extreme Wave Height Records along the North Atlantic Coasts using Hindcast Data: Feasibility and Limitations. Journal of Coastal Research, Coastal Education and Research Foundation, 2020, 95 (sp1), pp.1268-1272. ⟨10.2112/SI95-245.1⟩. ⟨hal-02844118⟩
• Yiou, P., J. Cattiaux, D. Faranda, N. Kadygrov, A. Jézéquel, P. Naveau, A. Ribes, Y. Robin, S. Thao, G.J. van Oldenborgh, and M. Vrac, Analyses of the Northern European summer heatwave of 2018, In “Explaining Extremes of 2018 from a Climate Perspective”. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2020) 101 (1): S35–S40.
• J. Zscheischler, P. Naveau, O. Martius, S. Engelke, and C. C. Raible. Eva- luating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes. Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 2020 :1–23, 2020.
• François, B., Vrac, M., Cannon, A., Robin, Y., Allard, D. (2020) Multivariate bias corrections of climate simulations: Which benefits for which losses? In press in Earth System Dynamics (ESD), https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-10
• Robert Vautard, Maarten van Aalst, Olivier Boucher, Agathe Drouin, Karsten Haustein, Frank Kreienkamp, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E.L. Otto, Aurelien Ribes, Yoann Robin, Michel Schneider, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Peter Stott, Sonia I Seneviratne, Martha M Vogel and Michael Wehner. Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 heat waves in Western Europe. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aba3d4

(Submitted) van Oldenborgh, G. J. and Krikken, F. and Lewis, S. and Leach, N. J. and Lehner, F. and Saunders, K. R. and van Weele, M. and Haustein, K. and Li, S. and Wallom, D. and Sparrow, S. and Arrighi, J. and Singh, R. P. and van Aalst, M. K. and Philip, S. Y. and Vautard, R. and Otto, F. E. L. Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-69

(Submitted) Ribes A., S. Qasmi, N. Gillett (2020) Making climate projections conditional on historical observations, submitted to Science Advances.

 

2019

• Christidis, N., R. A. Betts, and P. A. Stott, The extremely wet March of 2017 in Peru. In “Explaining Extremes of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 100, S31-S35, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0110.1, 2019.
• Christidis, N., and P. A. Stott, Attribution of the 2018 summer heatwave in the UK, Hadley Centre Technical Note 106, Available from https://library.metoffice.gov.uk/Portal, April 2019.
• Christidis, N., D. Mitchell, and P. A. Stott, Anthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health, Int. J. Climatol., doi:10.1002/joc.6104, 2019
• Kew, S. F., S. Y. Philip, G. J. van Oldenborgh, F. E. L. Otto, R. Vautard, and G. van der Schrier, The exceptional summer heat wave in Southern Europe 2017. In “Explaining Extremes of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 100, S49-S53, 2019.
• McCarthy, M., N. Christidis, N. Dunstone, D. Fereday, G. Kay, A. Klein-Tank, J. Lowe, J. Petch, A. Scaife, and P. A. Stott, Drivers of the UK summer heatwave of 2018. Weather, 74, 390-396, 2019.
• Ribes A., S. Thao, J. Cattiaux (2019) : Describing the relationship between a weather event and climate change : a new statistical approach, submitted to Journal of Climate.
• J. Rohmer, G. Le Cozannet: Dominance of the mean sea level in the high-percentile sea levels time evolution with respect to large-scale climate variability: a Bayesian statistical approach Environ. 2019 Environ. Res. Lett.14 014008
• Sheng Chen, Mathieu Vrac, Davide Faranda. Event Attribution of Climate Change with a Dynamically-driven Stochastic Weather Generator. Submitted to ASCMO, 2019
• Vautard, R., G. J. van Oldenborgh, F. E. L. Otto, P. Yiou, H. de Vries, E. van Meijgaard, A. Stepek, J.-M. Soubeyroux, S. Philip, S. F. Kew, C. Costella, R. Singh, and C. Tebaldi, Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271-286, 2019b. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019
• Bevacqua, E., Maraun, D., Vousdoukas, M.I., Voukouvalas, E., Vrac, M., Mentaschi, L., Widmann, M. (2019) Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change. Sci Adv 5 (9), eaaw5531, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw5531
• Denvil-Sommer, A., Gehlen, M., Vrac, M., and Mejia, C. (2019) FFNN-LSCE: A two-step neural network model for the reconstruction of surface ocean pCO2 over the Global Ocean. Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2091–2105, 2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2091-2019
• Bevacqua, E., Vousdoukas, M.I., Shepherd, T., Vrac, M. (2020) Brief communication: The role of using precipitation or river discharge data when assessing global coastal compound flooding. In press in Natural Hazards and Earth System Science (NHESS), https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-415.
• van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Mitchell-Larson, Eli and Vecchi, Gebriel and de Vries, Hylke and Vautard, Robert and Otto, Friederike E.L. (2019) Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes. Environ. Res. Lett.14 114004
• Philip, S. and Sparrow, S. and Kew, S. F. and van der Wiel, K. and Wanders, N. and Singh, R. and Hassan, A. and Mohammed, K. and Javid, H. and Haustein, K. and Otto, F. E. L. and Hirpa, F. and Rimi, R. H. and Islam, A. S. and Wallom, D. C. H. and van Oldenborgh, G. J (2019). Attributing the 2017 Bangladesh floods from meteorological and hydrological perspectives. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1429, 2019 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019

2018

• Cattiaux, J. and A. Ribes (2018): Defining Single Extreme Weather Events in a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99, 1557–1568, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0281.1
• Ciavarella, A., N. Christidis, M. Andrews, M. Groenendijk, J. Rostron, M. Elkington, C. Burke, F. Lott, and P. Stott, Upgrade of the HadGEM3-A based attribution system to high resolution and a new validation framework for probabilistic event attribution, Weather Clim. Extremes, 20, 9-32, 2018
• Christidis, N., R. A. Betts, and P. A. Stott, The extremely wet March of 2017 in Peru. In “Explaining Extremes of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0110.1, 2018
• Luu, L., R. Vautard, P. Yiou, G. J. van Oldenborgh, and G. Lenderink (2018): Attribution of extreme rainfall events in the South of France using EURO-CORDEX simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi :10.1029/2018GL077807.
• Philip, S., S. F. Kew, G. J. van Oldenborgh, E. Aalbers, R. Vautard, F. Otto, K. Haustein, F. Habets, and R. Singh, Validation of a rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France to climate change, J. Hydrometeorology., 19, 1881-1898, 2018.
• Vrac, M. Multivariate bias adjustment of high-dimensional climate simulations: the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) Bias Correction. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3175-3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3175-2018

2017

• Jézéquel A., Yiou P., Radanovics S., Vautard R., Analysis of the exceptionally warm December 2015 in France using flow analogues. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0103.1, 2017.
• Wilcox, L.J., Yiou, P., Hauser, M., Lott, F.C., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Colfescu, I, Dong, B., Hegerl, G., Shaffrey, L., Sutton, R. Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change, Climate Dynamics, 1-19, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3822-7, 2017
• Kew, S.F., S.Y. Philip, G.J. van Oldenborgh, F.E.L. Otto, R. Vautard, and G. van der Schrier, The exceptional summer heatwave in Southern Europe 2017, BAMS, 100, S2–S5, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0109.1

Non peer-reviewed studies/rapid attribution studies:

• Otto et al, Heatwave in northern Europe, summer 2018. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/attribution-of-the-2018-heat-in-northern-europe/
• van Oldenborgh, G. J., S. Philip, S. Kew, R. Vautard, O. Boucher, F. Otto, K. Haustein, J.-M. Soubeyroux, M. Vogel, P. Stott, and M. van Aalst, Human contribution to the record-breaking June 2019 heat wave in France, World Weather Attribution report, Available from https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-contribution-to-record-breaking-june-2019-heatwave-in-france/ , 2019. (the peer-reviewed paper published in 2020 by Vautard et al)
• Vautard, R., O. Boucher, G. J. van Oldenborgh, F. Otto, K. Haustein, M. M. Vogel, S. I. Seneviratne, J.-M. Soubeyroux, M. Schneider, A. Drouin, A. Ribes, F. Kreienkamp, P. Stott, and M. van Aalst, Human contribution to the record-breaking July 2019 heat wave in Western Europe, World Weather Attribution report, Available from https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-contribution-to-the-record-breaking-july-2019-heat-wave-in-western-europe/ , 2019 (the peer-reviewed paper published in 2020 by Vautard et al)